Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something aboutwater security of roughly one-third of China's population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM(1,1)(DWSGM(1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of "r" by using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM(1,1)model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM(1,1)grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system.
منابع مشابه
Evaluation of Gorganrood river water quality based on surface water quality indicators in Gonbad Kavous
Background and Objective: Increased untreated wastewater and unsustainable development of agriculture has deteriorated water quality of rivers. The aim of this study was to determine the quality of water in Gorganrud River basin using NSFWQI IRWQISC and Liou Pollution Index and compare them with the global standards. To do this, GIS software.was used Materials and Methods: In this study, 5 sam...
متن کاملDevelopment of Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast the Annual Natural Gas Consumption
Accurate forecasting of annual gas consumption of the country plays an important role in energy supply strategies and policy making in this area. Markov chain grey regression model is considered to be a superior model for analyzing and forecasting annual gas consumption. This model Markov is a combination of the Markov chain and grey regression models. According to this model, the residual er...
متن کاملOptimization Model of Hirmand River Basin Water Resources in the Agricultural Sector Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming under Uncertainty Conditions
In this study, water management allocated to the agricultural sector’ was analyzed using stochastic dynamic programming under uncertainty conditions. The technical coefficients used in the study referred to the agricultural years, 2013-2014. They were obtained through the use of simple random sampling of 250 farmers in the region for crops wheat, barley, melon, watermelon and ruby grapes under ...
متن کاملCase study Malaysia: Spatial water quality assessment of Juru, Kuantan and Johor River Basins using environmetric techniques
This study investigates spatial water quality assessment of selected river basins in the three different states in Malaysia. Environmetric techniques namely, cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA), were applied to study the spatial variations of the most significant water quality variables in order to determine the origin of pollution sources ...
متن کاملRiver Flow Simulation Using SWAT Physically Based Model in Barandouzchay of Urmia Lake River Basin
Nowadays, there are too many models in the world for simulation of hydrological processes, such as the SWAT physically based model. The SWAT model is a continuous and physically based hydrologic model that is the smallest unit in this model is Hydrologic Response Unit, and all hydrological processes are simulated in each of these units. This model can simulate runoff, sedimentation, erosion and...
متن کامل